The Golden Scratch-R was a great addition to the game, and has encouraged many people who have never spent money on donuts to contribute a little something towards EA’s coffers. But if the chances of an Easter update are slim to none, it turns out that the chances of winning 100 donuts on the Golden scratch-R are only a little better. And thanks to some great digging into the files by j_3xx9 posting on, we’re able to know exactly what those chances are.

The money you spend on a Golden Scratch-R gives you one chance and one chance only at winning donuts (it would be great if the 99 cents – or your currency equivalent – that you spent gave you a Scratch-R subscription, but it would make very poor business sense for EA!). For those who haven’t played yet, these are the possible winnings:

And here’s the probability you’ll win any of these:

100 donuts – 2% (maybe 2 wins in 100 purchases)
50 donuts – 4%
20 donuts – 10%
12 donuts – 20%
9 donuts – 33.33%
6 donuts – 30.37%

The interesting thing is that you’re slightly more likely to win 9 donuts than you are to win 6 donuts, which makes the Golden Scratch-R at least as good as, and often better than, buying a dozen donuts through the donut store.

And, of course, there’s still the hope of a big win!

Update: Just after posting this, this screenshot came in on Twitter from @SovietData, who got really, really lucky today: